Recently I attended a lecture by Dr. Marian Radetzki, Professor at Lulea University, on “The Fallacies of Peak Oil". The facts presented by him instigated me to do some findings of the complete situation and views from the peak oil people.
Peak Oil concept first appeared in 'Hubbert peak theory' which says that peak oil is the time at which the global petroleum production is maximum. The argument is based on the assumption that the global production rates of petroleum follow an approximate normal (bell shaped curve). Thus at peak oil point half of the total oil reserves of the world would have been consumed. After the peak oil the production of the oil should decrease and the prices of the oil should rise steeply.
Since the oil prices have risen very steeply in recent times and have broken all records and crossed the $100 per barrel mark for crude oil prices, many peak oil proponents argue that peak oil has arrived and if the consumption of oil is not controlled the reserves will not last longer than five years.
In 1974 Marion King Hubbert, a geo-scientist at the Shell research lab, predicted that peak oil would be in 1995 at about 12 Gbbl (gigabarrels) per year. Since then there have been many changes both in the consumption pattern and production rate and estimate of the oil reserves. Oil production rate has more than doubled and still the peak didn't arrive because of increase in the estimated global reserves of oil during this period.
ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas), an informal network of scientists interested in determining the peak oil and its impact, predicted that global production of oil peaked in 2004 at about 23 Gbbls. However, in 2005, ASPO revised its prediction for the peak oil to the year 2010 taking into account both conventional and non-conventional sources of oil.
The opponents of the peak oil argue that the steep rise in prices of oil in 2004 was not alone and it was a trend observed in all major commodities. Moreover the increase in prices of oil is dependent on the political situation and some temporary supply side constraints. They argue that the estimation of the oil reserves have been increasing as is the oil production. Hence despite of increase in production the peak oil situation is far from us.
Peak Oil concept first appeared in 'Hubbert peak theory' which says that peak oil is the time at which the global petroleum production is maximum. The argument is based on the assumption that the global production rates of petroleum follow an approximate normal (bell shaped curve). Thus at peak oil point half of the total oil reserves of the world would have been consumed. After the peak oil the production of the oil should decrease and the prices of the oil should rise steeply.
Since the oil prices have risen very steeply in recent times and have broken all records and crossed the $100 per barrel mark for crude oil prices, many peak oil proponents argue that peak oil has arrived and if the consumption of oil is not controlled the reserves will not last longer than five years.
In 1974 Marion King Hubbert, a geo-scientist at the Shell research lab, predicted that peak oil would be in 1995 at about 12 Gbbl (gigabarrels) per year. Since then there have been many changes both in the consumption pattern and production rate and estimate of the oil reserves. Oil production rate has more than doubled and still the peak didn't arrive because of increase in the estimated global reserves of oil during this period.
ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas), an informal network of scientists interested in determining the peak oil and its impact, predicted that global production of oil peaked in 2004 at about 23 Gbbls. However, in 2005, ASPO revised its prediction for the peak oil to the year 2010 taking into account both conventional and non-conventional sources of oil.
The opponents of the peak oil argue that the steep rise in prices of oil in 2004 was not alone and it was a trend observed in all major commodities. Moreover the increase in prices of oil is dependent on the political situation and some temporary supply side constraints. They argue that the estimation of the oil reserves have been increasing as is the oil production. Hence despite of increase in production the peak oil situation is far from us.
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