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Showing posts with label Stock Market News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market News. Show all posts

Jan 27, 2008

FII sold heavily in mid January crash


While the Mutual Funds started selling in the initial days of the previous week, they started pumping in the money during the fall of the stocks. FIIs on the other hand were about neutral in the week before but they suddenly started selling off heavily each day and even on last few days of the week when the sensex gained significantly, FIIs were net sellers to the extent of more than 1000 crores of rupees. Though the last day selling was very less compared to previous three days in which they sold about 2500 crores worth of stocks each day.

Jan 20, 2008

SEBI might impose price band on IPO listing day

After observing the volatility of price and volume of IPOs of different issue size, SEBI analysed the movement using parameters such as issue size, price variation on the day of listing and the variation on subsequent days. The analysis gave a clear indication of the pattern – a quite high volatility on listing day which was not sustained after that specially for issue size up to 250 crore. The regulator is looking at imposing a price band of 25% on the issue price on the day of listing for IPOs up to issue size 250 crore. The decision is yet to formalize and SEBI is waiting for comments and suggestion from public on this proposal on or before January 31.

This proposal will be welcome news for the long term strategic investors. These investors decide on investing on particular stock after an in-depth analysis of the business of the company. The high price on listing day which could not be sustained on subsequent days, disappoint such investors and might prompt them to book profit on listing day. Steady and sustained price discovery will make the investment fair and attract strategic investment.

On the other hand those retail investors, who do not have much ideas of the business of company and bid mostly on last day after looking at the number of times stocks is oversubscribed, might be discouraged. If a stock gets oversubscribed 10 times in retail segment then even after bidding for 1 lakh (maximum limit for retail investor), one is expected to get shares worth 10,000 Rs. With an upper cap in price on listing day to 25% this investor can not expect more than 2500 Rs return, that is effectively on his 1 lakh investment (as the amount of unallocated shares comes back only a few days before listing). Thus a 2.5% (2,500 of 100,000) return on 20 days (average time from the day of bidding closure to listing day) even in bullish market condition while investment in secondary market could easily fetch 10-15% return.

SEBI needs to look on this step from different aspects for a fair movement in market. One solution for this could be investing a part of total bid rather than full amount. Recently Reliance Power IPO had given option of investing 25% of total bid size. With retail getting subscribed for more than 15 times and Mr. Anil Ambani’s approach to give shares to all retail bidders, the 25% investment will cover the amount required for the allocated shares. The regulation is expected to come in next month and suggestion prom public could help SEBI in taking a pragmatic decision without hurting anyone.

Jan 16, 2008

Nifty falls below 6000 mark first time in 2008 led by Mutual funds sell off

Indian stock market has seen heavy sell off in the past two days. The benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex have touched a low level of about 4-5% from the closing value two days back. We will try to analyse the reasons for this abrupt selling, but first we shall look into the trends of the Indian stock market for past one year. The following graphs are self-explanatory:

Variation of Nifty-50 over one year. Returns in excess of 50% in one year.
Past one month variation in Nifty index. Highly volatile. Nifty fell sharply in mid December 2007, and also rise sharply the next week. Touched new highs of 6300 in January 2008 before falling back sharply below the 6000 level in mid January. Will Nifty rise back sharply as seen in December last year, perhaps no one can say so for sure.
The last two days heavy sell off can be seen in this chart. On January 15, and 16 Nifty has fallen sharply and only in last hour of trading on January 16, bulls have tried to come back.
Reasons for sharp fall:
If we look at two big group of players in the Indian markets, the FIIs and the mutual funds, the perception of both are not same. While mutual funds have been one of major reason as they have sold off heavily in equities in the last two trading session, FIIs have been buying steadily though their activity has slowed down.
One of the apparent reason is the Reliance Power IPO, India's biggest IPO so far, which opened for subscription on January 15, 2008. The size of the IPO is about 3 billion dollars and it got fully subscribed within minutes of its opening. The excitement about the IPO has lead to it getting more than 10 times offer for subscription on the first day itself. This is remarkable considering the size of the issue. About 27 billion dollars have shifted to Reliance Power and it appears that a substantial part of it has been coming from the stock markets. There is a craze for IPOs and this has led to spectacular performance of the IPOs in the last year. Moreover, at levels above 6300 for Nifty many investors don't see any significant upside and have taken their money from stock market to the IPO which has higher chances of giving them 40-50% returns on listing.

Jan 14, 2008

BSNL may sell stocks worth $10billion (Rs 40,000 crores) through India's biggest IPO

Indian Government announced on monday that it may sell $10 billion(Rs. 40,000 crores) stake in BSNL, one of the India's biggest telecom company. This will be done through initial public offering (IPO) of shares and fund will be used for expansions plans. BSNL will be the second biggest telecom company in Asia after China Telecom by market capitalization.

The IPO will value the BSNL at Rs 400,000 crore, much ahead of Bharti Airtel, the country’s No.1 company whose market capitalization is Rs. 172,179 crores (January 14, 2007). BSNL will also become the India's second biggest listed company after Reliance Industries Limited(RIL) which has market capitalization of about Rs 448,193 crore.

On Tuesday India's biggest IPO so far will be opened for subscription. A $3 billion (Rs 11,700 crore) IPO by Reliance Power will break the previous best record of 9,190 crores by the real estate major DLF Ltd.

Jan 12, 2008

Finding Beta of a stock

Beta is a measure of the systematic risk pertaining to a security. It is an estimate of the returns on a stock when the market changes by a unit percentage. A beta of 1 means that the stock is in perfect correlation with the market, if the market moves up by 1% the particular stock will also move up by 1% and vice-versa. There are many ways to estimate beta the most common one being using the historical data. Since beta estimates the returns using historical beta may not always yield the exact future returns, but most of the times they explain the trend.

Historical beta is calculated by regression of the stock return and market return for a particular time period unit. This may be daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly, or quarterly depending upon the available data, accuracy required and relevance. The market returns are measured by taking the returns of some index which takes the representation of almost all the sectors of the market.

Lets find beta for State Bank of India (SBI). We have taken the returns on weekly basis and market as CNX-500. The data for the last five years up to December 15, 2007 have been plotted below.

Regression analysis yields the slope of the line as 1.156 which is beta.

The historical price movement of SBI and CNX till December 2007 is shown below.


Jan 8, 2008

Derivatives market turnover in India

Derivatives market in India is mainly in two categories: index derivatives & stock derivatives. Index derivatives includes futures and options contracts based on the benchmark index, the most famous of them being Nifty - 50 index. The trading of contracts with Nifty-50 as underlying is done through NSE and the contract size is 50. With a value of Nifty at 6250 this sums to a contract size of 312500 rupees. There are three types of contracts depending on the settlement date: 1 , 2 , 3 month contracts. The contracts expiry date is set on thursday of the last week of each month, and a new contract is initiated on the next trading day.
The derivatives trading in India was started by NSE in June 2000 with the introduction of Nifty Futures. Index options were introduced one year later in June 2001. Since then the turnover in index based derivatives in NSE has grown several times. The following graph shows the turnover trend in NSE index derivatives (futures and options)

Jan 4, 2008

List of holidays / trading sessions off in BSE/NSE in 2008

The following is the indicative list of holidays in the functioning of stock exchanges in India to be observed in 2008. The list is available on BSE's website.

Mahashivratri 06-Mar-08
Id-E-Milad 20-Mar-08
Good Friday, Holi 21-Mar-08
Ambedkar Jayanti 14-Apr-08
Mahavir Jayanti 18-Apr-08
Maharashtra Day 01-May-08
Buddha Purnima 19-May-08
Independence Day 15-Aug-08
Ganesh Chathurthi 03-Sep-08
Ramzan Id, Gandhi Jayanti 02-Oct-08
Dasera 09-Oct-08
Diwali (Laxmi Pujan) 28-Oct-08
Diwali ( Bhaubeez) 30-Oct-08
Gurunanak Jayanti 13-Nov-08
Bakri-Id 09-Dec-08
Christmas 25-Dec-08

In total there are 16 working days (Monday to Friday) trading suspension for holidays in India.

Dec 25, 2007

Santa brings cheers for Indian investors

The Indian stock exchange rocked on 24 December with the benchmark index BSE-30 (Sensex) rising by 3.6%. This came as a pleasant surprise for many traders who were hoping a dull market following the trend of past few days. In the previous week the Indian stock market had shown loosing faith and in the last couple of trading session there was a tussle between bulls and bears with even results. With the festive spirit the markets have bounced back but are still to see the 20,000 mark for the Sensex which was crossed earlier this month.

There were couple of reasons for this spectacular performance. Gujarat elections, increased buying in IT stocks were the main reasons supporting the overall global market performance. Almost all the sector had contributed to this rise including the IT, banking, power, metals, etc. The stock markets world over are celebrating the festive season and Indian markets are no way behind them.

Dec 22, 2007

SEBI allows institutional investors to short sell

[India]
On December 20, 2007, Securities and Exchange Board of India, SEBI, has passed circular permitting institutional investors to short sell shares in Indian securities market. Previously, only retail investors were allowed to short sell. SEBI has also planned a securities lending and borrowing (SLB) scheme to provide platform for settlement of short sold securities.

“Short selling” is selling a stock which the seller does not own at the time of selling. If the view on a particular security is bearish (price is expected to go down), one can short sell now and buy later. The time for buying back securities short sold is till the end of week. The short seller has obligations to buy back the security.

According to SEBI guidelines naked short selling is not permitted in the Indian securities market. All investors have to mandatorily honour their obligation of delivering the securities at the time of settlement.

SEBI has also mentioned that institutional investor will not be allowed to do day trading. Also, the institutional investors will be required to disclose upfront at the time of placement of order if short selling.

It has also announced that securities traded in Futures and Options (F&O) segment shall be eligible for short selling.

Source: The SEBI circular is available on the website.

Nov 22, 2007

200 billion dollar firms of India

According to an article in Economic Times, the number of firms having market capitalization of more than 1 billion dollar have crossed the two hundred mark in November 2007. Last year in April 2006 India had 100 firms with billion dollar plus market capitalization. The significant increase in the number of billion dollar firms is due to the bull run in the Indian stock market. The Sensex, 30 stock index, of Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE) of India has grown by more than 50% in a period of last one year. FII's contribution in this bull run is dominant like any other emerging markets. With a high growth rate of 9% the India Inc. is attracting lot of investment esp. in the stock markets.

Reliance Industries Ltd., India's largest listed company, has market capitalization of 3804 billion INR ($96.3 billion) as of 22 Nov, 2007. There is still a long way to go to catchup with the global giants.

Read more on this at Economic Times.

Nov 19, 2007

Top 10 stock markets by capitalization

The top 10 biggest stock markets in the world when ranked on the basis of the market capitalization of all the shares of the domestic companies is:

Market Capitalization in trillion US Dollars:

Rank Stock Exchange Oct-07 End 2006 End 2005
1 NYSE Group 16.3 15.4 13.6
2 Tokyo SE 4.6 4.6 4.6
3 Nasdaq 4.4 3.9 3.6
4 London SE 4.2 3.8 3.1
5 Hong Kong Exchanges 3.0 1.7 1.1
6 Deutsche Börse 2.1 1.6 1.2
7 BME Spanish Exchanges 1.8 1.3 1.0
8 Australian SE 1.5 1.1 0.8
9 Swiss Exchange 1.3 1.2 0.9
10 Borsa Italiana 1.1 1.0 0.8

Source of Data : World Federation of Exchanges

Nov 12, 2007

Nick Leeson and late Barings bank :)


The Britain’s oldest merchant bank, Barings bank, had financed the Napoleonic wars, the Louisiana purchase, and the Eire Canal and Queen Elizabeth’s personal bank. Once one of the biggest banks, it grabbed attention of the world in 1995 for the action of a single trader from the small office in Singapore.

Nick Leeson joined Barings bank after working with Morgan Stanley for short period. His work on clearing the mess in Jakarta was highly appreciated and he was made General Manager with authority to hire traders and back office staff in Barings Securities (Singapore) Limited (BSS). After joining BSS in 1992, Leeson soon took necessary exam to trade in SIMEX (Present Singapore Exchange) along with his team of traders. Leeson and his traders got authority for two types of trading


1. Transacting futures and options orders for clients or for other firms within the Barings organization, and
2. Arbitraging price differences between Nikkei futures traded on the SIMEX and Japan’s Osaka exchange.


As a trader, Leeson had extremely hard luck. He started losing money since very beginning and increasing his bets made his position worse. By the end of 1992, he was losing GBP 2MM which increased to GBP 23MM in a year. By 1994 he had lost total of GBP 208MM and surprisingly Barings management was till unaware of this. For all such furtive trading Leeson used account number 88888. Generally neither trader, nor employer prefers to publicize the loss. But by the time the unauthorized speculative trading of Leeson was discovered, Barings bank was bankrupted after such a huge loss.


Such a staggering loss caused by Leeson speculation went unnoticed in the Barings management because of ongoing merger of two parts of Barings organisation. Barings had started forming risk management function, but Singapore went without having any risk controller. There was no single person within Baring responsible for supervision of Leeson’s activity. Baring had adopted Matrix structure in 1993 and lines of reporting were not clear most of the time.


Leeson tried every possible act to keep the management unaware of such mismanagement of funds. He falsified records, fabricated letters and concocted stories to deflect management attention, auditors and even SIMEX. A few concerns from other employee couldn’t attract attention of management and Leeson remained celebrity within Barings. He secretly kept making loss in 88888 account, but publicly recorded profit in three arbitrage accounts.


By February 1995, when the management discovered the fraud, the total loss of Barings had reached $1.4 billion. Barings was unable to meet SIMEX’s margin call and was declared bankrupt. On 3’rd March 1995, the Dutch bank, ING, purchased it for £1 and assumed all its liabilities.

Nov 11, 2007

Nasdaq to acquire Philadelphia exchange for $652m

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), New York based stock market, is acquiring the Philadelphia stock exchange (PHLX) for $652 million cash to expand into the fast-growing options trading business.

Philadelphia exchange is third largest option exchange in the US. Its majority of shares are owned by the six Wall Street firms – Merrill Lynch, Citadel Derivatives, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Credit Suisse and UBS. These six firms together own 89.4% stake in PHLX.

The deal is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2008 and this takeover will boost the Nasdaq earning starting 2009.

Nov 5, 2007

PetroChina crosses $1 Trillion mark

PetroChina created history by becoming the first company in world to cross trillion dollar mark in market capitalization. PetroChina's share were listed today in Shanghai stock exchange after it came up with an IPO last month. PetroChina's shares on listing today were trading at triple the initial public offer price. At these prices the valuations certainly look expensive but considering the kind of bull run that Chinese stock market is undergoing the stock can have some upside from these level also. The relative valuation of the Chinese Oil & Gas major can be compared by the fact that the second largest company by market capitalization, Exxon Mobil Corp., is only half of the PetroChina's current market cap when PetroChina is not even in world's top 50 companies by earnings. PetroChina's valuation can only be explained by the future outlook of the company and kind of growth Chinese economy is witnessing.

Nov 2, 2007

PetroChina is all set to surpass Exxon Mobil in market capitalization

The biggest listed Chinese company, PetroChina, has recently overtook General Electric to become the world's second-biggest company by market capitalisation, next only to Exxon Mobil Corp. Now, PetroChina is ready to beat Exxon Mobil Corp. This has been eased by the recent IPO which PetroChina came up with for the domestic investors. Presently, it is listed in HongKong and US. After its listing on November 5, its market capitalization is expected to be more than 800 billion USD. Exxon has a market cap of $ 485 billion and PetroChina's combined market cap in the US and Hongkong is about $450 billion.

Earlier PetroChina raised $9 billion in the biggest IPO of the China overtaking the record set by China Shenhua Energy when it raised $8.8 billion from investors last month. PetroCina's IPO is the biggest of this year.

China crosses US in top 10 market capitalization

Five Chinese companies are now in global top ten companies by market capitalization. Chinese stocks have almost tripled in past ten months of year 2007. It is currently trading at P/E ratio of more than 50. PetroChina, which recently has raised $9 billion in the world's biggest initial public offer (ipo) , is all set to become the world leader in market capitalization after it opens for trading in secondary market. Currently PetroChina is ranked second only to Exxon Mobil Corp.


The top 10 companies in world by market capitalization are:

Rank Company Country Approx. Market Cap ($)
1 Exxon Mobil Corp. US 485
2 PetroChina China 450
3 General Electric Co. US 411
4 China Mobile China 393
5 ICBC* China 330
6 Microsoft Corp. US 327
7 Gazprom Russia 290
8 Royal Dutch Shell Netherlands 277
9 Sinopec** China 276
10 China Life Insurance China 260

*ICBC - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
**Sinopec is also known as China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation


Nov 1, 2007

Market Capitalization of India and China

India’s stock market index, Sensex, has doubled in two years; China's stock market's index Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has nearly tripled in last 10 months (since the beginning of this year).


P/E ratio of Indian stocks averages 25 while that of China is about 50.


China’s market capitalization $3.5 trillion is more than double of India’s $ 1.6 trillion.


China has five companies in the world’s top 10 companies by market capitalization while Indian companies are yet to enter the list. India’s biggest company by market capitalization, Reliance Industries Limited has recently crossed the $100b mark.


Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has replaced Citigroup from the top position in the banking sector. Three of the world’s top six banks are from China. These are ICBC, China Construction Bank and Bank of China. Chinese companies are now the world’s leader by market capitalizations in banking (ICBC), insurance (China Life Insurance), telecoms (China Mobile) and airlines (Air China).


Similar kind of trend was seen in 20th century when US companies replaced European companies in the list of world’s top companies by market capitalization.

Oct 27, 2007

Stocks to watch

As long as our money doesn't make money for us, we are dependent on someone for our sustenance. As long as our budget depends upon the month-end salary, we can’t have everything in life. Investment, if done intelligently, can be one of the easiest way to get rich fast. This section of the blog will keep you updated with the crisp news about the companies and help you to take better decision about investing.

This week was quite significant with the clearance from SEBI about the P-notes and the FII bringing dollars back to exchange. BSE's 30-stock index, Sensex, witnessed an all time high till now and closed at 19,243. In the absence of any bad news in coming days the trend is expected to continue. The inflation maintained its 5 years low position at 3.07% in the week ended 26'th October, and that dilutes the prediction of any hike in CRR by RBI in the near future. This helped the banking sector accumulate significant gains and in the outlook in near future is strong.

There are many large cap stocks which are moving the market quite often and always in news, but in this section we will bring to you those stocks which are not heard much, but all set to be future star. The list starts with -





RMTL is a Gujarat based company manufacturing welded and seamless stainless steel(SS) pipes & tubes, carbon steel(CS) LSAW, HSAW and ERW pipes. It is the only company in the industry having presence in both CS and SS pipes. The company has embarked on a growth trajectory with its Greenfield expansion in Kutch, backward integration into Hot SS extruded-mother pipes, addition of spiral SAW and wind power capacity. Sales of the company has grown by hopping 630% in last 5 years. Share price has gone up by 260% in from Nov ’06 to Oct' 07 At the CMP of Rs 1257 (as on 26th October) the stock is trading at 11.75x FY08E and 9.11x FY09E.

At present the outlook of this company remains very strong from the major markets namely Refinery, Petrochemicals, LNG, Capital Goods Industry and Power Plants. With a robust order book position of around Rs.5 bn which will be executed within next 6-8 months, RMTL will continue to get healthy order book in FY08E and FY09E as well mainly because of big capex plans announced by oil and gas industry players. Undoubtfully, the RMTL stock has been performing very well on the bourses and is has more than doubled in a year. Seeing the valuations and current trend it can easily cross Rs 1800, a 54% upside from current level. More information at Rediff Money.


Disclaimer: FINMANAC has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for its blog. The views and investment tips expressed above are the personal view and should not be taken as only base for any investment decision. FINMANAC advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.