Deflation in Japan may lead to a deeper recession

The economic woes for Japan, world's second largest economy after US, had deepened with the GDP for the last quarter of 2008 falling sharply, down by 3.3% from previous quarter and 12.7% annualized. This is the sharpest decline since 1974 oil crisis. This was the third consecutive quarterly decline in GDP. Japan has high dependence on exports and because of ongoing financial crisis in the US and European countries exports have fallen considerably.

Japan has been facing tough economic situation since more than a decade. It had seen consistent deflationary periods from 1999 to 2006. However GDP growth had picked up since 2003 and stood at a decent 2% in 2007. The year 2008 saw a fall in growth rate to 0.3% and in 2009 it is expected to be -2% (JCR projections).

The fall in global commodity prices has put downward pressure on inflation. According to the official data, the consumer price index for Japan in December 2008 was 101.3 (base year 2005=100), down 0.4% from the previous month, and up 0.4% year-on-year. A fall in prices will add on to the slowdown of economy. A period of deflation generally results in lower savings and investments. It may also lead to deflationary spiral in which fall in prices lead to lower production activities and hence lower wages leading to decreased purchasing power and lower demand. In history this kind of viscious deflationary spiral occured during the Great Depression.

Challenges ahead for Indian Monetary Policy

The much expected rate cut by RBI did not happen. In the midst of all the all sorts of speculation, RBI has adopted a policy of wait and watch for the time being. So what’s there left in Indian market in coming days? The impact of differential interest rate is going to have diverse effect. The following heads could be one way to summarize the future move.

More inflow of dollar is expected in the coming months and the huge capital inflow will further complicate the monetary policy. Rupee has already appreciated by almost 12.3% against dollar in last year and further gain could worsen the plight of export industry. Textile industry has already lost more than 50,000 jobs the issue needs to be addressed soon.

We witnessed the lowest inflation of last 5 years in December 2007, but the wholesale price index rose 3.93% in the week ended January 19. This inflation was highest in the last five months. The huge capital inflow in the market from outside is expected to put pressure on inflation. The petroleum price hike also seems imminent and this going to further accelerates inflation. RBI’s stand on keeping the interest rate intact reflects that curbing inflation is of highest priority at this point of time.

Large capital inflow has increased the liquidity in the market and monetary policy has got complicated, RBI needs to be flexible to act on each and every global clue to keep the interest of one and all.

Reliance Power IPO subscribed for more than market value of the Portuguese and Czech stock markets (Update 1)

As per Bloomberg, the bid for Reliance Power initial public offer (IPO) exceeded Portugal Market Value. The company is likely to raise more than Rs 10000 crore from this public issue excluding promoters’ contribution. This is the largest IPO in Indian market till date. The company sought to raise around 117 billion Rs ($3 billion) through 228 million shares on offer. The offer had got subscribed within 60 seconds on the day of opening and finally got oversubscribed by 73.04 times as per National Stock Exchange (NSE). The offer received an order worth more than $190 billion, which is equivalent to combined value of Portugal and Czech stock markets.

The 3’rd richest man of India, Mr. Anil Ambani will increase his wealth further with listing of this Stock. Reliance energy has got 50% stake on Reliance Power. Power stocks have driven the market well in the year 2007 and the trend is expected to continue. Reliance Energy share price increased from around 600 Rs in February, 2007 to more than 2400 Rs in January this year. The addition of Reliance Power is expected to receive a good demand in the market when it gets listed early next month.

The issue price was fixed at 450 Rs today (19'th Jan) and is expected to gain 300-400 Rs on the day of listing. With already $45 billion of wealth with him, Anil Ambani might take a leap with this addition in his asset and that could make him the richest person of the world. The next update from Forbes magazine on official ranking of richest people of the world will certainly bringing more Indians among top rankers. According to the earlier update from Forbes, the wealth of Ambani brothers together with L. N. Mittal and K. P. Singh is more than the 40 richest Chinese. This IPO was one of the most talked and coming month might change fortunes of many.

Rupee appreciation and its after-effect

The rupee has witnessed around 12% appreciation last year, the most since at least 1974. On 16’th Jan 2008, it was quoting at 39.068 per US dollars (USD) against 44.28 at the end of 2006. The strong economic fundamental is one of the major factors for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The appreciation got further strengthened by the sub-prime crisis in US. The sub-prime crisis in US led to fall in US market and investor started taking their money out. They looked for the best market to invest and found Indian market more attractive. According to Security and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the net investment in India by FII was 19.53 bn USD in 2007 as compared to 8.87 bn USD in the year 2006, a 120% increase in the FII inflow. As per the data from commerce ministry, Foreign direct investments through august last year totaled $12.9 bn USD as compared to $11.1 bn for the whole of year 2006. This high inflow of money from the international market has increased the demand of rupee significantly and that has propelled the sudden surge in value of rupee against dollars. This could have impact on various aspects including trade, inflation and government policy as well.

International Trade:

The strengthening of rupee has made import attractive while it has severely impacted the export. Export growth slowed down to an average 17% till Oct, 2007 from 21.3% a year earlier. The current account (Account for export and imports) deficit widened in the three months through September to $5.5 bn, while the capital-account (Account for FDIs , FIIs and overseas borrowings) surplus more than doubled in the quarter to $34.75 bn. IT business is one of the worst hit industries with all the companies showing slump in growth. These companies have sought for government interference, which is yet to be addressed.

Petroleum Prices:

The soaring crude oil prices has always been a cause of concern for India oil companies with no say in the domestic pricing of petroleum products. The $100 per barrel crude oil would have left government with no other choice except increasing the oil price, which no government will be willing to do when hardly a year is left for the Lok Sabha election. The appreciation in rupee has helped government to compensate the high oil price to some extent.

Impact on Inflation:

January 2007 witnessed the highest inflation in last 3 years because of increased demand for pulses and general goods with supply constraints. The appreciation in rupee made import cheaper and hence decreased price, which led to decrease in inflation to almost 5 years low in December, 2007.

As the full impact of subprime is yet to be amortized and expected further cut in Federal Reserve interest rate, the rupee is expected to further appreciate to 38 per dollar by the end of this year.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy intends to achieve a balance between excess and shortage of money supply in the market/economy. These policies are concerned to the supply/control of money. It influences the pace and direction of economic activity, money supplies, interest rates, borrowing and price level.

In the case of shortage of money on the economy the growth gets hampered which has negative impact on the prosperity of people. On the other hand if there is excess of money in the market, the prices of goods and services goes up and severely impacts the poor. The government/RBI needs to make sure that the sufficient money is available with market for the growth without affecting the poor.

The main objectives of monetary policy are –

Maintaining the price stability

Inflation has strong negative impact on social welfare and needs to be maintained at lower level.

High and stable employment

Employment opportunities could be increased by higher investment and economic activities, which in turn requires availability of credit at reasonable interest rates.

Economic growth

Adequate credit is required for the productive activities and hence sound monetary policy is required for supporting the growth in an economy

Stability of exchange rates

Exchange rate (amount of dollars per Rupees) is a crucial factor determining a country’s position in the international trade (import and export). Increase in the exchange rate () discourages export and enhances imports and vice versa. The current increase in exchange rate(appreciation of rupees against dollars) had a negative impact on the IT industry which is mainly based on export.

Fluctuation in exchange rates makes the planning difficult for the traders and hence monetary policy should aim on preventing any sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate.

Sectoral deployment of finds

Depending upon the priorities laid down in the plans/by government, Monetary Policy (RBI) determines the allocation of funds and interest rates among different sectors. Examples: Priority sector lending; recent move to increase interest rate on housing loans.

Goldman Sachs & Merrill Lynch comment on recession of US economy

According to a report from Merrill Lynch, US economy is already in recession. It refers to the employment report as an confirmation of recession. The unemployment rate of 5% in December was supportive of this view. The housing market is already falling and consumer spending is also lower.

While Goldman Sachs declined the recession in the US economy, it predicted that recession is very close and US economy may see it in 2008.

Goldman Sachs beleives that the slowdown in the US economy will affect the interest rates, since Fed bank may choose the option of lowering rates from 4.25% to about 2.5%

Goldman Sachs cautioned the investors to stay away from banking and finacial sector and increase their holdings of healthcare and consumer-related stocks.