Introduction
The issue of consolidating the South Asian economies, and have stronger economic relations in the region, is not new. However, the idea of having a common currency in South Asia was encouraged after a successful launch of EURO by European Union in 2002. The talks for a common currency in South Asia began in 2004, when then Prime Minister of India Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee went to Pakistan for SAARC summit. It was termed by economies as a visionary initiative which would bring businesses in South Asia closer to each other, kick-starting closer economic ties. This was followed up by the commitment towards economic integration through free trade agreement in the Twelfth SAARC Summit, Islamabad. However, not many empirical studies have taken place to suggest the framework for launching a common currency for South Asia.
Many industry stalwarts and economists have put forth the prospective benefits and problems of having a common currency. The aim of this article is to summarize these benefits and problems and to have an introspection of each of these factors in order to have an understanding of the issue.
Economic Structure of South Asian Nations
In order to have economic integration, the potential member nations should have a similar level of economic development. This includes comparable average literacy level, similar work force productivity and working standards, in order to ensure that the flow of manpower across borders is minimal. If this is not the case, it would lead to an increase in the social and fiscal strains on the immigrant country.
In case of South Asian countries, the level of development of individual economies is more or less the same, with countries like India and China leading the way towards becoming developed economies. However, there are a few countries like Bangladesh which still have a long way to go. Looking at the structure of production, it comes out that the level of contribution of the Industrial sector is reasonably similar across the South Asian countries. The Industrial sector constitutes approximately a fourth of the GDP in all the countries. However, the contribution of agriculture varies across countries.
Although this intra-regional disparity is not much, it still makes the case of South Asia different from that of Europe, where the level of development of countries is even more similar. However, few studies claim that the similarity of economic structure may make the countries vulnerable to similar shocks, which could require a similar policy response. This strengthens the case for a common currency on the grounds of similar shocks.
Feasibility of having Common Currency in South Asia
Apart from the point being mentioned regarding the economies being at similar stages of development, there are two other points which strengthen the case for launching a common currency. Most South Asians already use currency called “Rupee”. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, India and Nepal have currency called Rupee. Bhutan has both Indian Rupee and Ngultrum as legal tender. Maldives’ currency is Rufiya. So it should be easy to have a popular consensus for a unified currency. Second point is that under British rule we all had a common currency which extended to Middle East and to South East Asia. Now, Globalization and freer trade is taking South Asia back to its economic history.
But on the other hand, we need to put an emphasis on the fact that Europe emerged as a common currency economic zone after more than half a century following the end of hostilities in 1945 (End of World War-II). It took fifty years of political, economic and social negotiations for it to become a Union. In the given context, if the situation is compared for South Asia, the efforts for consolidation have only been started recently. This presents a pessimistic picture which weakens the prospect of launching a common currency.
Prospective Benefits
The common currency regime, when achieved, will confer substantial benefits to the region. It will remove the uncertainty about exchange rates and reduced transaction cost will result in providing a big boost to trade and investment in the region. Also, there would be better prospects of synchronization of inflation, interest rates and GDP growth by having a centralized control on money creation. This will contribute to accelerated growth and poverty reduction.
Also, from a business perspective, it will lead to reduction in transaction costs as they increasingly trade with each other. It will provide a bigger market for foreigners to invest in and a bigger market for savings will result in lower interest rates for all borrowers, which is beneficial for businesses everywhere.
Looking at it from another angle, this economic cooperation can prove helpful to bridge political differences among a few countries in the region, especially India and Pakistan.
Issues and Problems
One fundamental problem of having common currency is that individual countries do not have their own currency and monetary policy is agreed on regional level with agreement on national component of currency and money creation. Therefore, the system requires surrender of monetary sovereignty and of seigniorage associated with currency creation and monetary expansion.
Conclusion: The way ahead
The objective of common currency can be achieved only in an incremental manner. The Governors of Central Bank of each country should convene to develop a roadmap for currency union. The process has to begin with the initial step to introduce a parallel currency and utilize that instrument to promote regional cooperation in trade and investment. Parallel currency does not require surrender of sovereignty and individual countries retain control on their currencies and monetary policies. In addition, there is a currency created jointly, according to weightage of different currencies in the basket and assigned a value, and allocated among member countries. This common currency can be created for South Asia and will be fully convertible into any international currency. It will be used as a unit of transactions on account of trade and investment in South Asia and will be legal tender for cross-country transactions in the region. Also, South Asian countries can create a pool of forex reserves to meet emergency Balance of Payments needs as well as development needs in the region. Then, each of the Central Banks should eventually merge all their operations relating to the issue of currency, foreign exchange and interest rates. Finally, mutual trust and confidence has to be built in the parallel currency among all partners in the region, so that it becomes integrated in the economic system of the region, in order to ensure its conversion to common currency, over time.
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