Logo

Sep 30, 2007

Sub-prime crisis - Origin and Impact

The origins of this crisis can be traced from late 1990s, when the dotcom bubble started. After the crash of the dotcom bubble in 2000s most of the countries including US were facing economic recession. Interest rates were low during these periods and lending standards were not good. This led to the rise of another bubble in 2001 in the form of real estate. The prices of the real estate property sky rocketed during this period. There was a rat-race for buying houses and people were taking loans as it was very cheaply and easily available. Lending agencies used innovative products to attract customers. During 2004 through 2006, concepts like ‘teaser rates’ became popular in mortgages. These teaser rates (initial low interest rate) applied through varied time period, ranging from few months to couple of years depending on the mortgage creditworthiness. The thing which the borrowers forgot was that at the end of this freedom period the rates can rise rapidly, raising the minimum instalment to be paid out of their capacity. During this period lenders were so confident that they qualified borrowers only by their ability to pay the teaser rates.

One may trace the sub-prime crisis to the securitization – conversion of home mortgages into bonds. The man behind securitization was an Investment Banker of 'Salomon Brothers' - Lewis S. Ranieri. In 1980s Salomon launched Mortgage-Based Securities (MBS) – bonds with bundles of mortgages, bought from bank lenders, as collateral. For this, Salomon used a special purpose vehicle known as Collateralized Mortgage Obligation (CMO). Monthly instalment was used to pay the interest on these bonds. We will discuss about securitization separately.

Securitization had some negative implications on the mortgage standards. Since anyone can originate a loan and sell it to the Investments Banks, which package them and sell them as MBS, it lead to originators writing risky loans as they need not worry about the payback of loan. This problem was dealt by slicing MBS into tranches on the basis of the risk profile. These tranches which may have different maturity period were given ratings by credit rating agencies like S&P and Fitch. The most risky tranches were difficult to sell except for the hedge funds and some pension funds. These hedge funds were so eager to buy these securities that they didn’t care about the huge impending risk associated with these tranches and continued to invest in them.

With the collapse of the housing bubble in mid 2005 real property price declined so much that many owners holding became negative equity, mortgage debt became higher than the value of the property. During the housing bubble, many property owners used their property as collateral to raise money for consumer spending. With the crash of housing markets these lenders faced huge defaulter problem and were unable to recover their losses.

Aggravating the issue was the rising interest rates, coupled with the maturity of the freedom period of teaser rates, which increased the monthly payments. Many house owners felt incapable of meeting their financial liabilities and went bankrupt. Amongst the institutional players affected were the sub-prime lenders, banks, housing developers, and investors like hedge funds and pension funds. The impact was not limited only to US, as UK’s leading subprime lender Northern Rock sought bankruptcy protection.

No comments:

Post a Comment